Ways to think about AGI

Founder takeaway

When experts agree that an important risk is fundamentally uncertain, don’t force a confident forecast. Separate what is knowable from what is not, then make choices that remain defensible across several plausible outcomes.

Why it matters

Founders can waste scarce resources by treating speculation as certainty—or become paralyzed by uncertainty. Scenario-based, reversible decisions preserve flexibility while still enabling progress.

Relevant guides

Put it to work

For your most consequential AI decision, list three materially different AGI scenarios, the assumptions behind each, and one reversible action that creates value or limits downside in all three.