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About Essays - Benedict EvansHow do we think about a fundamentally unknown and unknowable risk, when the experts agree only that they have no idea?
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Essays - Benedict Evans · Benedict Evans
articleinsightSource excerpt
About Essays - Benedict EvansHow do we think about a fundamentally unknown and unknowable risk, when the experts agree only that they have no idea?
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
When experts agree that an important risk is fundamentally uncertain, don’t force a confident forecast. Separate what is knowable from what is not, then make choices that remain defensible across several plausible outcomes.
Founders can waste scarce resources by treating speculation as certainty—or become paralyzed by uncertainty. Scenario-based, reversible decisions preserve flexibility while still enabling progress.
For your most consequential AI decision, list three materially different AGI scenarios, the assumptions behind each, and one reversible action that creates value or limits downside in all three.
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