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Choose the Right Direction

Helping founders decide where to play, how to win and what not to do.

Reading time
28 minutes
Difficulty
Foundation
Author
Mike Parsons
Strategy explains how you win—not simply what you plan to do.
Mike Parsons

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Guide summary

Founders rarely suffer from a shortage of ideas, opportunities or things to do. The harder challenge is deciding which direction deserves the company’s limited time, attention and capital.

That is the role of strategy.

Strategy is not a list of goals, projects or actions. Those belong in a plan. Strategy explains why a particular set of choices should create an advantage and give the company a credible way to win.

A strong founder strategy connects insight with choice. It defines the market you will enter, the customer you will serve, the problem you will solve and the capabilities that will make your company meaningfully different. Just as importantly, it identifies what you will not pursue.

Apollo believes focus creates the conditions for learning. When a company tries to serve too many customers, solve too many problems or pursue too many opportunities at once, the evidence becomes difficult to interpret. A focused strategy makes it easier to learn what works, improve what matters and build momentum.

This guide will help you move beyond a list of actions and develop a clear view of how your company intends to win.

Key takeaways

What You’ll Learn

By the end of this guide, you’ll understand how to:

  1. 01

    Distinguish strategy from goals, plans and actions.

  2. 02

    Turn a market insight into a focused strategic direction.

  3. 03

    Choose where to play and who to serve.

  4. 04

    Define a clear and credible way to win.

  5. 05

    Use trade-offs to protect your focus.

  6. 06

    Connect mission, positioning and capabilities.

  7. 07

    Test your strategy through evidence rather than assumption.

Why strategy matters

Why Strategy Matters

Every startup has more possible directions than it can successfully pursue.

You could enter another market, serve a second customer segment, launch a new product, add more features, form a partnership or chase a large opportunity outside your original focus. Many of these ideas may be attractive. Some may even be valuable.

But you cannot pursue all of them equally.

Strategy exists because resources are limited. A founder has limited time, limited money, limited attention and a limited number of meaningful experiments the company can run at once. Without a clear strategy, those resources become scattered across disconnected initiatives.

The result is often a company that is busy but not advancing. It launches campaigns, builds features, attends events, hires people and holds planning meetings, yet remains unable to explain why those actions should create an advantage.

Strategy Is Not a List of Actions

A list such as this may be useful:

  • Launch the new website.
  • Hire a salesperson.
  • Build an enterprise feature.
  • Attend three industry events.
  • Increase revenue by 50%.
  • Enter a new market.

But it is not a strategy.

It does not explain:

  • why these actions belong together
  • which customer they are intended to serve
  • what market insight supports them
  • what advantage they are designed to create
  • why this approach is more likely to succeed than the alternatives

Without that logic, the company has a collection of activities rather than a coherent direction.

A plan tells the team what will happen next. A strategy explains why those actions should produce a better outcome.

The questions answered by a plan and by a strategy.
What will we do?How will we win?
When will we do it?Where will we play?
Who owns each action?Who will we serve?
What resources are required?What advantage will we create?
What is the target?Why should these choices work together?

Both matter, but they are not the same.

Strategy Creates Coherence

The strongest strategies give the company a clear organising idea.

That idea helps founders decide:

  1. Which opportunities fit.
  2. Which customers matter most.
  3. Which capabilities must be developed.
  4. Which investments reinforce the strategy.
  5. Which distractions should be declined.

When those choices reinforce one another, the company becomes more coherent. Product, marketing, sales, hiring and operations begin moving in the same direction.

This is why strategy is not limited to an annual planning workshop. It becomes a practical decision-making tool used throughout the year.

When a new opportunity appears, the question is not simply:

Could we do this?

The better question is:

Would doing this strengthen or weaken how we intend to win?

Focus Creates the Conditions for Learning

Early-stage companies do not begin with certainty. They begin with assumptions.

Your market, ideal customer, value proposition and route to growth are all hypotheses until customers and results provide evidence.

A focused strategy makes those hypotheses easier to test.

When you pursue one market, one ideal customer and one important problem, you can see patterns more clearly. You learn which messages resonate, which needs matter most and which capabilities create value.

When you pursue many directions at once, the signals become mixed. It becomes difficult to understand why something worked, why it failed or what should change next.

Strategy gives the company enough direction to act while remaining open to evidence that may require the direction to change.

Mike’s story

Making Software More Human

Apollo perspective

The Apollo Perspective on Strategy

Apollo believes strategy should be useful in the decisions a founder makes every week.

It should help you decide which customer to pursue, which feature to build, which capability to strengthen, which partnership to accept and which opportunity to decline.

If a strategy only appears in a slide deck or annual planning session, it is not doing enough work.

A useful strategy creates a clear logic:

Because we see this opportunity, we will make these choices, develop these capabilities and compete in this way.

The individual choices matter, but their relationship matters even more. A strong strategy is a system of decisions that reinforce one another.

Strategy Begins With Insight

Every meaningful strategy starts with a view of reality.

You may see that:

  • a customer group is being poorly served
  • an important problem is becoming more urgent
  • technology has changed what is possible
  • competitors are solving only part of the problem
  • two capabilities can be combined in a new way
  • an existing business model no longer fits customer behaviour

The insight does not need to be revolutionary. It needs to be important, credible and useful enough to guide a choice.

In the Qualitance story, the insight was not simply that design was valuable. It was that strong engineering without strong experience design would not be enough to create the company we wanted to build.

That insight led to a strategic choice.

Strategy Requires Choice

A company cannot be everything to everyone.

Choosing one direction means declining others, at least for now. That is what gives strategy its power.

A meaningful strategy should clarify:

  • Where will we play?
  • Who will we serve first?
  • What important problem will we solve?
  • How will we create and capture value?
  • What capabilities must we build?
  • Why will customers choose us?
  • What will we deliberately not do?

Without clear choices, strategy becomes a collection of agreeable statements that place no limits on the company.

Strategy Explains How You Will Win

Winning does not always mean defeating every competitor.

For an early-stage company, winning may mean becoming the obvious choice for a narrowly defined customer, solving one painful problem better than the alternatives or creating a combination of capabilities that customers struggle to find elsewhere.

Your way to win should be credible enough to guide action and specific enough to influence decisions.

Weak strategic statements compared with stronger strategic directions.
Become the market leader.Become the trusted AML operating system for large gaming venues in New South Wales.
Build the best product.Combine real-time financial visibility with one view across a founder’s personal and business finances.
Grow through partnerships.Use a small number of trusted industry partners to reach a tightly defined customer segment.
Deliver excellent software.Combine engineering and experience design to make complex software more human.

The stronger statements make choices visible. They identify a customer, a problem, a capability or a distinctive approach.

Strategy Must Remain Open to Evidence

A strategy is a commitment, not a certainty.

Founders need enough conviction to focus, but enough humility to change when reality contradicts the original assumptions.

That means a strategy should include evidence thresholds:

  • What customer behaviour would support this direction?
  • What results would make us invest further?
  • What evidence would cause us to reconsider?
  • How long will we test this choice before reviewing it?
  • Which assumptions carry the greatest risk?

Apollo does not recommend changing strategy every time a result disappoints. Constant movement prevents learning.

The better discipline is to stay focused long enough to gather meaningful evidence, then update the strategy deliberately.

Through the Apollo Lens

Strategy is not the work of predicting the future perfectly.

It is the work of making a coherent set of choices based on what you currently understand, then testing those choices against reality.

The founder’s job is not to eliminate uncertainty.

It is to create enough clarity to move in one direction, learn and improve.

Clarity before acceleration.

Founder strategy foundations

The Foundations of Founder Strategy

A strong strategy is not one clever sentence. It is a set of choices that work together.

Apollo believes founder strategy rests on seven foundations.

The seven foundations of founder strategy and their strategic questions.
RealityWhat is actually happening in the market?
MarketWhere will we choose to compete?
CustomerWho will we serve first?
ProblemWhat important problem will we solve?
AdvantageHow will we create a better outcome?
FocusWhat will we deliberately not pursue?
EvidenceHow will we know whether our strategy is working?

These foundations are connected. A weak choice in one area usually weakens the others.

A company may have a strong product but target the wrong customer. It may understand the customer but lack a distinctive way to win. It may have a credible strategy but dilute it by pursuing too many opportunities at once.

Good strategy creates alignment between all seven.

  1. 01

    See Reality Clearly

    Strategy begins with an honest view of the current situation.

    Founders can easily confuse what they hope is true with what the evidence actually shows. Customers may express interest without paying. A large market may exist but still be difficult to reach. A product may receive positive feedback while failing to create a sustainable business.

    Before deciding where to go, understand where you are.

    Ask:

    • What is changing in the market?
    • What are customers already doing?
    • Which problems are becoming more urgent?
    • What evidence supports our beliefs?
    • What uncomfortable facts might we be avoiding?
  2. 02

    Choose Where to Play

    A market is more than a broad industry label.

    “Financial services”, “healthcare” or “small business” may describe an area of interest, but they are usually too broad to guide meaningful decisions.

    A useful market choice should help the company understand:

    • the environment in which it will compete
    • the buyers and users it needs to understand
    • the alternatives customers currently use
    • the regulations, partners or channels that shape the market
    • the boundaries of the initial opportunity

    Choosing a market does not mean the company can never expand. It means deciding where to concentrate learning first.

  3. 03

    Choose Who to Serve

    Early-stage companies often resist narrowing their ideal customer because they fear missing opportunities.

    In practice, trying to serve everyone usually makes the product, message and sales process less effective.

    A clear ideal customer helps the company learn:

    • which problems matter most
    • how customers describe those problems
    • who makes the buying decision
    • what creates urgency
    • which outcomes justify paying

    Apollo often recommends a simple discipline:

    One market. One ICP. One important problem.

    This is not necessarily the company’s permanent boundary. It is the starting point from which useful evidence can accumulate.

  4. 04

    Choose the Problem

    Founders naturally become attached to solutions.

    Strategy requires becoming equally committed to understanding the problem.

    The strongest problems tend to be:

    • important
    • frequent
    • costly
    • urgent
    • poorly solved
    • connected to a measurable outcome

    A customer may like your idea without caring enough to change their behaviour or spend money. That is why interest alone is not enough.

    The strategic question is not:

    Do customers like this?

    It is:

    Does this solve a problem that matters enough for customers to act?
  5. 05

    Define How You Will Win

    This is the centre of strategy.

    Once you have chosen the market, customer and problem, you need a credible explanation of why customers will choose you.

    Your way to win may come from:

    • a distinctive product experience
    • deeper customer understanding
    • a trusted distribution advantage
    • lower cost
    • greater speed
    • better integration
    • specialist expertise
    • a stronger business model
    • a combination of capabilities that competitors struggle to reproduce

    At Qualitance, the strategy was not simply to employ good engineers. It was to combine engineering and experience design around the mission of making software more human.

    The advantage came from the combination.

  6. 06

    Protect the Focus

    Every strategic choice creates opportunities that must be declined.

    This is difficult for optimistic founders. A new customer, partnership, product idea or market may appear valuable on its own. But every additional direction consumes attention and makes the original strategy harder to execute and evaluate.

    Useful strategic boundaries may include:

    • customer segments you will not serve yet
    • product features you will not build
    • markets you will not enter
    • revenue opportunities you will decline
    • capabilities you will not develop internally

    Saying no is not a lack of ambition.

    It is how strategy protects the company’s limited resources.

  7. 07

    Define the Evidence

    A strategy should produce testable expectations.

    For example:

    • This customer segment will respond more strongly than others.
    • This problem will create sufficient urgency to buy.
    • This capability will improve conversion or retention.
    • This channel will reach customers efficiently.
    • This positioning will be easier for customers to understand.

    Define the evidence before interpreting the results.

    Ask:

    1. What must be true for this strategy to work?
    2. Which assumption carries the greatest risk?
    3. What early evidence would increase our confidence?
    4. What evidence would cause us to reconsider?
    5. When will we formally review the strategy?

    Strategy requires conviction, but it should never become immune to reality.

Strategy framework

The Apollo Strategy Framework

Apollo uses a simple framework to help founders move from ambition to a credible way to win.

Framework

See → Choose → Position → Win → Focus → Test → Learn

  1. 01

    See

    Understand the reality of the market, the customer and the company.

    What is happening that matters?

  2. 02

    Choose

    Select the market, customer and problem that deserve focus.

    Where will you play?

  3. 03

    Position

    Define the value you will create and why customers should choose you.

    What will make your company meaningfully different?

  4. 04

    Win

    Identify the capabilities, model and choices that create an advantage.

    How will you win?

  5. 05

    Focus

    Decide what you will not pursue.

    What must you say no to?

  6. 06

    Test

    Turn the strategy into assumptions that can be examined through evidence.

    What must be true?

  7. 07

    Learn

    Review what happened and deliberately update the strategy.

    What has reality taught you?

Return to the first step as new evidence appears
See → Choose → Position → Win → Focus → Test → Learn

The framework can be expressed as:

See → Choose → Position → Win → Focus → Test → Learn

It is a loop rather than a one-time exercise. New evidence may improve the positioning, sharpen the customer definition or reveal a stronger way to win.

The goal is not to create a perfect strategy document. The goal is to make a coherent set of choices, act on them and learn faster than the alternatives.

Strategy traps

Common Strategy Traps

Even experienced founders can confuse movement with direction.

Most weak strategies do not fail because the team lacks ambition. They fail because the company avoids a difficult choice, acts on an untested assumption or pursues too many attractive opportunities at once.

Recognising these patterns early helps a founder protect focus before the cost becomes significant.

Common strategy traps, what they look like and better alternatives.
The action-list trapThe strategy is a collection of projects, targets and deadlines.Explain how the actions combine to create an advantage.
The everyone trapThe company describes almost any customer as a potential buyer.Choose one market, one ICP and one important problem first.
The ambition trapStatements such as “become the market leader” replace real choices.Define where you will play and how you will win.
The opportunity trapEvery large prospect, partnership or product request changes the direction.Judge opportunities against the strategy rather than their size alone.
The solution trapThe company becomes attached to its product before proving the problem matters.Stay committed to the customer problem, not the first solution.
The imitation trapThe team copies competitors without understanding why their choices work.Use first-principles thinking to build a strategy suited to your reality.
The certainty trapThe strategy is treated as permanently correct.Commit long enough to learn, then update deliberately when evidence changes.

The Action-List Trap

A strategic plan may contain dozens of sensible actions:

  • launch a campaign
  • build a feature
  • hire a salesperson
  • enter a market
  • create a partnership
  • increase revenue

The problem is not the actions themselves. The problem is the absence of a unifying logic.

A useful test is to ask:

If we completed every action on this list, why would customers be more likely to choose us?

When the team cannot answer clearly, it has a plan but not yet a strategy.

The Everyone Trap

Broad customer definitions feel safer because they preserve opportunity.

They usually create the opposite result.

When a company attempts to serve everyone, it becomes harder to:

  • identify the most important problem
  • write a clear message
  • design the right product
  • choose an effective channel
  • build repeatable sales evidence

Focus may initially make the market appear smaller, but it makes learning faster and the company easier to understand.

The Opportunity Trap

Optimistic founders naturally see possibilities.

A large customer asks for a custom feature. A partner suggests another market. A new technology creates excitement. Each opportunity may appear compelling in isolation.

The strategic question is not only:

Could this generate revenue?

It is also:

Would this strengthen the way we intend to win—or pull us away from it?

Not every good opportunity is a good strategic fit.

The Solution Trap

Founders often begin with a product idea and then search for people who might need it.

A stronger strategy begins with a valuable customer problem.

Solutions can change. The problem provides continuity.

When a product is not gaining traction, the right question is rarely:

How can we convince more people to want this?

A better question is:

Have we chosen a problem that matters enough for customers to change their behaviour?

The Imitation Trap

Competitor strategies can look attractive from the outside.

You may see their pricing, positioning, features or marketing channels. You usually cannot see the capabilities, economics, customer relationships and historical choices that make the strategy work.

Copying the visible actions without understanding the underlying logic creates imitation without advantage.

First-principles thinking asks:

  1. What customer outcome are we trying to create?
  2. What must be true for that outcome to matter?
  3. Which capabilities are genuinely required?
  4. What approach fits our strengths and constraints?

The Certainty Trap

A strategy needs commitment. Without commitment, the company changes direction before it has learned anything meaningful.

But commitment is not the same as stubbornness.

Founders need to hold two ideas at once:

  • Stay focused long enough to gather evidence.
  • Remain willing to change when the evidence is strong.

The discipline is not constant pivoting or permanent conviction.

It is deliberate review.

Practical strategy process

A Practical Strategy Process

Strategy becomes valuable when it changes the decisions a company makes.

A founder does not need a hundred-page strategy document. They need a clear set of choices that the team can understand, test and use when deciding what to do next.

Apollo recommends a practical seven-step process.

  1. 01

    Describe the Current Reality

    Begin with what is true now, not what you hope will become true.

    Review:

    • customer behaviour
    • market changes
    • sales evidence
    • product usage
    • competitive alternatives
    • company strengths and constraints
    • financial reality

    Separate facts from assumptions.

    For example:

    Fact: Ten customers completed a product trial.

    Assumption: Larger customers will pay more for the same product.

    Fact: Customer interviews repeatedly mention manual reporting.

    Assumption: Reporting is painful enough to create buying urgency.

    This distinction matters because a strategy built on an untested assumption can look convincing while remaining disconnected from reality.

  2. 02

    Identify the Strategic Insight

    A strategy needs an insight that explains why the chosen direction may work.

    The insight might come from:

    • an underserved customer
    • a recurring customer problem
    • a change in technology
    • a regulatory shift
    • a broken business model
    • an overlooked distribution channel
    • two capabilities that become more valuable when combined

    The Qualitance insight was that strong engineering alone was not enough to create the desired advantage. Combining engineering with experience design created a more distinctive and valuable proposition.

    Your insight should be simple enough to explain in a few sentences.

    Ask:

    What do we understand about this market, customer or problem that should influence our choices?
  3. 03

    Choose Where to Play

    Define the initial arena in which the company will concentrate its learning.

    Be specific about:

    1. The market.
    2. The ideal customer.
    3. The buyer or user.
    4. The geography, industry or context.
    5. The important problem.

    A useful starting point might be:

    We will initially serve Australian gaming venues with more than 50 electronic gaming machines that need a simpler way to manage AML compliance.

    That is more useful than:

    We serve businesses that need compliance software.

    The narrower version helps guide product, messaging, sales and partnerships.

  4. 04

    Define How You Will Win

    Explain why the chosen customer should prefer your company over the alternatives.

    Avoid vague statements such as:

    • better service
    • leading technology
    • customer-centric
    • easy to use
    • innovative

    These may be desirable qualities, but they do not yet explain an advantage.

    A credible way to win should connect customer value with company capability.

    Use this sentence:

    We will win by helping [customer] achieve [important outcome] through [distinctive approach or capability].

    For example:

    We will win by helping large gaming venues reduce manual compliance work through a platform that combines operational workflows, evidence capture and industry-specific expertise.

    The statement does not need to be perfect. It needs to be specific enough to guide decisions and test assumptions.

  5. 05

    Make the Trade-offs Visible

    Write down what the company will not do during this strategic period.

    This may include:

    • customers you will not target
    • features you will not build
    • markets you will not enter
    • channels you will not prioritise
    • services you will not customise
    • partnerships you will not pursue

    Trade-offs prevent the strategy from becoming diluted when new opportunities appear.

    A useful strategy review should include two lists:

    Strategic commitments and trade-offs.
    Focus on one primary ICP.Build equally for every possible customer.
    Solve one urgent problem deeply.Add unrelated features to satisfy individual prospects.
    Develop the capabilities required to win.Chase every attractive opportunity.
    Review the strategy using evidence.Change direction after every disappointing result.
  6. 06

    Turn the Strategy Into Testable Assumptions

    Every strategy contains beliefs about the future.

    Make those beliefs visible.

    Examples include:

    • The chosen customer has sufficient urgency to buy.
    • The problem is important enough to justify changing behaviour.
    • The proposed advantage matters to the buyer.
    • The company can reach the customer efficiently.
    • The economics support sustainable delivery.
    • The required capabilities can be built.

    Rank the assumptions by risk.

    Then ask:

    1. Which assumption could invalidate the strategy?
    2. What is the cheapest credible way to test it?
    3. What evidence would increase our confidence?
    4. What result would require a strategic review?

    This turns strategy from an internal opinion into a learning system.

  7. 07

    Translate Strategy Into Coordinated Action

    Only after the strategic choices are clear should the company build the plan.

    The plan may include:

    • customer interviews
    • product experiments
    • sales activity
    • positioning work
    • hiring
    • partnerships
    • pricing tests
    • operating improvements

    Each action should connect to the strategy.

    Before approving an initiative, ask:

    Which strategic choice does this support, and what will it help us learn or achieve?

    An initiative that cannot answer that question may be useful, but it may not deserve priority.

Strategy artefact

The One-Page Founder Strategy

A founder should be able to express the company’s strategy on one page.

Include:

The nine elements

  • Reality: What is happening that matters?
  • Insight: What have we recognised?
  • Where to play: Which market and customer will we focus on?
  • Problem: What important need will we solve?
  • How to win: Why will customers choose us?
  • Capabilities: What must we become excellent at?
  • Trade-offs: What will we not pursue?
  • Evidence: What must be true, and how will we test it?
  • Immediate focus: What are the next three strategic priorities?

The purpose is not to simplify strategy into a slogan.

It is to make the choices clear enough that the team can use them.

Think • Reflect • Act

Think • Reflect • Act

Think

Strategy explains how you will win—not simply what you plan to do.

A list of goals may create activity. A strategy creates direction.

The test is whether your choices form a coherent answer to four questions:

  1. Where will we play?
  2. Who will we serve?
  3. How will we win?
  4. What will we deliberately not do?

If those answers are unclear, the company may have priorities and plans, but it does not yet have a complete strategy.

Reflect

Consider your current strategy.

Ask yourself:

  • Can every member of the leadership team explain how the company intends to win?
  • Have we chosen a clear market and ideal customer?
  • Are we solving one important problem or several loosely connected ones?
  • What insight supports our direction?
  • What makes our approach meaningfully different?
  • Which capability must we become excellent at?
  • What have we deliberately chosen not to pursue?
  • What evidence would cause us to change our strategy?

Then answer one harder question:

Are we pursuing this direction because the evidence supports it—or because we have already invested too much to reconsider it?
Which strategic choice are you currently protecting because the evidence supports it—and which one might you be protecting because changing it feels uncomfortable?

Act

Create a one-page version of your current strategy.

Complete these statements:

  1. The reality we see is: What is changing in the market, customer or competitive environment?
  2. Our strategic insight is: What have we understood that should shape our choices?
  3. We will play in: Which market, geography or category will receive our focus?
  4. We will initially serve: Who is the ideal customer?
  5. The important problem is: What need matters enough for the customer to act?
  6. We will win by: Which distinctive capability, model or combination will create an advantage?
  7. We will not: Which attractive opportunities will we deliberately decline?
  8. We will know the strategy is working when: What customer behaviour, commercial result or operating evidence should appear?
  9. Our next three strategic priorities are: Which actions will strengthen or test the strategy now?

Share the page with your leadership team.

Ask each person to explain the strategy in their own words. Differences in their answers reveal where the choices remain unclear.

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Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

A strategy does not remove uncertainty.

It gives you a clear way to move through it.

The strongest founders do not attempt to pursue every opportunity or predict every outcome. They see reality clearly, make deliberate choices, focus their resources and learn from the evidence.

Continue learning

Continue Learning

You’ve explored how strategy turns insight into a coherent set of choices.

The next step is translating those choices into something customers genuinely value.

A clear strategy should shape:

  • which customer you build for
  • which problem deserves attention
  • which product capabilities matter most
  • what you test first
  • what you deliberately leave out

Without strategy, product development can become a collection of features. With strategy, the product becomes an expression of how the company intends to win.

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