Essays - Benedict Evans · Benedict Evans
articleinsightThe VR winter continues
8 July 2024Strategy
Source excerpt
About Essays - Benedict EvansMeta has spent at least $50bn on VR and AR so far, but we’re still in the VR winter: the devices aren’t good enough or cheap enough and the user base is flat. But no matter how good the devices get, how many people will care?
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Separate product limitations from market limitations. Better and cheaper hardware may unlock adoption, but founders must also test whether a sufficiently large group values the underlying experience at all.
Why it matters
Large investments and technical progress cannot guarantee demand. Testing the market ceiling early helps founders avoid spending scarce resources on improving a product whose appeal may remain narrow.
Put it to work
Ask: If our product became dramatically better and cheaper tomorrow, which customers would adopt it, what recurring problem would it solve, and what evidence shows that audience is large enough?