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Essays - Benedict Evans · Benedict Evans
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About Essays - Benedict EvansMeta has spent at least $50bn on VR and AR so far, but we’re still in the VR winter: the devices aren’t good enough or cheap enough and the user base is flat. But no matter how good the devices get, how many people will care?
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Separate product limitations from market limitations. Better and cheaper hardware may unlock adoption, but founders must also test whether a sufficiently large group values the underlying experience at all.
Large investments and technical progress cannot guarantee demand. Testing the market ceiling early helps founders avoid spending scarce resources on improving a product whose appeal may remain narrow.
Ask: If our product became dramatically better and cheaper tomorrow, which customers would adopt it, what recurring problem would it solve, and what evidence shows that audience is large enough?
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