A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleThe Pattern-Seeking Fallacy
10 March 2024Profit
Source excerpt
About A Smart BearWe humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find "insights" that are actually noise. Here's how to fix that.
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat apparent patterns in marketing data as hypotheses, not insights. Before changing spend or messaging, test whether the pattern persists across more data, repeated periods, or a controlled experiment.
Why it matters
Acting on noise can misallocate scarce budget, create false confidence, and prevent founders from building a repeatable demand system.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
Pick one recent marketing “insight” your team acted on. What evidence would show it is repeatable rather than random, and what low-cost test can you run before committing more budget?
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