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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleSource excerpt
About A Smart BearWe humans are terrible at discerning patterns from randomness, and in marketing data we unwittingly find "insights" that are actually noise. Here's how to fix that.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
Treat apparent patterns in marketing data as hypotheses, not insights. Before changing spend or messaging, test whether the pattern persists across more data, repeated periods, or a controlled experiment.
Acting on noise can misallocate scarce budget, create false confidence, and prevent founders from building a repeatable demand system.
Pick one recent marketing “insight” your team acted on. What evidence would show it is repeatable rather than random, and what low-cost test can you run before committing more budget?
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