Essays - Benedict Evans · Benedict Evans
articleinsightPredicting AI job exposure
24 May 2026Strategy
Source excerpt
About Essays - Benedict EvansMany people would like to analyse which jobs, companies and industries are most exposed to AI, and assign scores, build charts, and map that against the progress of LLMs. I think this is mostly impossible: you don’t know how the jobs will change, you don’t know what else will change around this, and you can’t measure work like that anyway.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat AI job-exposure scores as weak signals, not forecasts. Instead of predicting which roles disappear, examine how specific workflows, responsibilities, and surrounding systems could change as AI capabilities evolve.
Why it matters
Static scores can create false confidence because jobs are bundles of changing tasks embedded in changing organizations. Workflow-level experiments give founders better evidence for hiring, tooling, and organizational decisions.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
Choose one important role in your company and ask: Which tasks could AI reshape, what new tasks or bottlenecks might appear, and what small experiment would help us learn before changing the role?