A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleNavigating the unpredictability of everything
19 March 2023Profit
Source excerpt
About A Smart BearWe dramatically, repeatedly fail to predict the future. Does that mean "strategy" is senseless? No, it means you need these techniques to navigate a volatile world.
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat strategy as a way to navigate uncertainty, not as a prediction that must come true. Make deliberate choices while preserving the ability to adjust when assumptions fail.
Why it matters
Founders who confuse plans with forecasts can keep investing after reality has changed. Explicit assumptions and response triggers improve decision quality without abandoning long-term direction.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
List the three assumptions your current strategy depends on most. For each, define an early warning signal and the decision you will make if the assumption proves wrong.
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