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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
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About A Smart BearWe dramatically, repeatedly fail to predict the future. Does that mean "strategy" is senseless? No, it means you need these techniques to navigate a volatile world.
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Treat strategy as a way to navigate uncertainty, not as a prediction that must come true. Make deliberate choices while preserving the ability to adjust when assumptions fail.
Founders who confuse plans with forecasts can keep investing after reality has changed. Explicit assumptions and response triggers improve decision quality without abandoning long-term direction.
List the three assumptions your current strategy depends on most. For each, define an early warning signal and the decision you will make if the assumption proves wrong.
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