How to measure the accuracy of forecasts

Founder takeaway

Evaluate probabilistic forecasts by whether the stated probabilities prove reliable over many comparable predictions, rather than judging each forecast as simply right or wrong.

Why it matters

Founders make decisions under uncertainty. Measuring forecast quality across repeated predictions helps teams distinguish sound judgment from luck and improve planning over time.

Relevant guides

Put it to work

Review a set of past forecasts grouped by probability—for example, all predictions assigned similar confidence—and ask whether outcomes occurred at roughly the expected rate. Use the gaps to adjust how your team expresses confidence.