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About A Smart BearHow do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It's not just about accuracy. Let's dive into the math.
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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleSource excerpt
About A Smart BearHow do you assess forecasts, when the forecast is only a probability? It's not just about accuracy. Let's dive into the math.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
Evaluate probabilistic forecasts by whether the stated probabilities prove reliable over many comparable predictions, rather than judging each forecast as simply right or wrong.
Founders make decisions under uncertainty. Measuring forecast quality across repeated predictions helps teams distinguish sound judgment from luck and improve planning over time.
Review a set of past forecasts grouped by probability—for example, all predictions assigned similar confidence—and ask whether outcomes occurred at roughly the expected rate. Use the gaps to adjust how your team expresses confidence.
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