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About A Smart BearDon't use phrases like "unlikely" or "almost certainly." Here's real-world data showing why not, and what to do instead.
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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleSource excerpt
About A Smart BearDon't use phrases like "unlikely" or "almost certainly." Here's real-world data showing why not, and what to do instead.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
Replace verbal probability labels such as “unlikely” with rough numerical estimates. Numbers make uncertainty explicit and reveal when teammates are using the same words to mean different things.
Ambiguous language can hide disagreement and create false alignment. Explicit estimates give founders a clearer basis for comparing risks, testing assumptions, and deciding where to commit scarce resources.
For your next uncertain decision, ask: “What probability would each of us assign, what assumptions drive it, and at what probability would our decision change?”
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