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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
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About A Smart BearWhy do smart, driven founders fail, despite having great ideas and execution? This model offers an answer, and a path to increase the chance of success.
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Apollo layer
Treat startup success as a set of uncertain conditions rather than proof that a strong idea and capable execution are sufficient. Identify which assumptions most threaten your odds, then work deliberately to strengthen or de-risk them.
Founders can execute well against a flawed or incomplete set of assumptions. Making those dependencies explicit helps direct scarce time and capital toward the risks most likely to determine the outcome.
List the assumptions that must hold for your startup to succeed, rate the evidence for each one, and choose one low-confidence, high-impact assumption to test this week.
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