Kellblog · Dave Kellogg
articleinsightPlease Don't Smooth the Metrics
26 July 2026Operations
Source excerpt
About KellblogSmoothing metrics can hide the very problems operators and boards need to see. A worked example shows how a rolling churn rate delays a critical conversation by six months—and why the volatility is the point.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Use raw, period-by-period metrics to run the business rather than smoothing away short-term changes. Trend views may help investors interpret a company, but operators need visible fluctuations to identify what requires attention.
Why it matters
Smoothing can hide inflection points and operational variability, making emerging problems or improvements harder to detect and act on.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
For one critical metric, compare the raw weekly or monthly results with the smoothed trend. What decision-relevant change disappears in the smoothed version?
Private notes