Kellblog · Dave Kellogg
articleinsightPlease Don't Smooth the Metrics
26 July 2026Operations
Source excerpt
About KellblogInvestors have lots of good habits when it comes to metrics. Operators can copy many of them. One habit they shouldn't copy, however, is smoothing.Smoothing has a legitimate purpose. Investors are trying to understand businesses. They're looking for long-term trends and patterns, so they
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Use raw, period-by-period metrics to run the business rather than smoothing away short-term changes. Trend views may help investors interpret a company, but operators need visible fluctuations to identify what requires attention.
Why it matters
Smoothing can hide inflection points and operational variability, making emerging problems or improvements harder to detect and act on.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
For one critical metric, compare the raw weekly or monthly results with the smoothed trend. What decision-relevant change disappears in the smoothed version?