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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
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About A Smart BearEven at wildly successful startups, the first few years are gut-wrenching, uncertain, on the brink of collapse, where pessimism is realism, and yet optimism is required.
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Apollo layer
Treat early-stage chaos as a condition to manage, not proof that the company is doomed. Hold two truths at once: assess threats without denial while preserving enough optimism to keep acting.
Founders who confuse optimism with certainty may ignore danger; founders who treat pessimism as the whole truth may freeze or spread despair. Clear-eyed hope supports better decisions and steadier leadership under uncertainty.
List the three risks most likely to threaten the company, one action that reduces each risk this week, and the evidence that would justify continued optimism.
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