Blog - Lauren Pearl · Lauren Pearl
articleinsightHow to forecast token spend
15 May 2026Profit
Source excerpt
About Blog - Lauren PearlRecently, I sat down at a table full of CFOs, and the question came up:How are you forecasting compute spend in the age of AI?Most times at these rounds, the conversation is vibrant. Lots of folks eager to weigh in.But this question left everybody stumped.And when they did talk, it was more complaints and confessions. One CFO admitted he’d unintentionally personally spent $100k in a single month building with agentic AI.The general mood around the table was stress.But then something struck me: Wait…...Is this just the classic Startup Mode/Finance Mode Problem?The Startup Mode/Finance Mode Problem is something I discovered first when teaching financial modeling at NYU Stern.My course was originally just for founders-Folks without a finance backgroundOften engineersAnd it was geared around teaching them financial modeling skills in general, from a first principles lens.But to my…
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat AI token and compute spend as a managed operating variable, even during rapid experimentation. Make costs visible early so “startup mode” usage does not become an unexpected finance problem.
Why it matters
Agentic AI experiments can generate large, unplanned bills, while traditional forecasting may not account for fast-changing usage. Connecting experimentation to basic cost controls protects runway without stopping learning.