A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleHow much of success is luck?
21 July 2024Profit
Source excerpt
About A Smart Bear"You're so lucky." That's true. There's also decades of sacrifice, emotional turmoil, long hours, perseverance. So… is it lucky?
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat success as a combination of sustained effort and favorable uncertainty—not proof that either hard work or luck alone determines outcomes. Focus the company on controllable inputs while creating more opportunities for good fortune to matter.
Why it matters
Founders who ignore luck can overestimate their judgment and repeat bets that only worked under unusual conditions. Those who overemphasize luck may underinvest in the perseverance and preparation needed to capitalize when opportunities appear.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
Review one recent win: Which factors were under your control, which were fortunate, and what repeatable system could increase your exposure to similar opportunities?