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About A Smart BearLuck always plays a role in startups, but there are ways to better capture upside and mitigate downside.
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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleSource excerpt
About A Smart BearLuck always plays a role in startups, but there are ways to better capture upside and mitigate downside.
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
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Design startup bets so success can come from several independent paths rather than requiring every assumption to be right. More “or” conditions increase your chances of capturing unexpected upside; too many “and” conditions compound downside risk.
Startups cannot eliminate luck, but they can shape their exposure to it. A plan with multiple credible routes to success is more resilient when one assumption fails and better positioned to benefit from surprises.
List the conditions your current plan requires. Which critical “and” could you replace with two viable alternatives, without spreading the company too thin?
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