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About A Smart BearAdvice from "successful entrepreneurs" might be unreliable due to Survivor Bias. What's real, and what's random?
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A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleSource excerpt
About A Smart BearAdvice from "successful entrepreneurs" might be unreliable due to Survivor Bias. What's real, and what's random?
This is a limited feed-provided excerpt, not the full original work.
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Treat advice from successful entrepreneurs as a hypothesis, not proof. Before copying a tactic, ask whether failures used the same approach and whether the outcome reflects a repeatable mechanism or randomness.
Mistaking visible success for causation can push founders to commit scarce time and capital to tactics that worked by chance or only under different conditions.
Choose one piece of founder advice influencing a current decision. What evidence from unsuccessful companies, relevant base rates, or a small test would help you separate real signal from survivor bias?
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