A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleAll pretty models are wrong, but some ugly models are useful
23 March 2025Profit
Source excerpt
About A Smart BearIdentifying useful frameworks for companies, strategy, markets, and organizations, instead of those that just look pretty in PowerPoint.
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Judge a framework by whether it improves a real decision, not by how elegant or presentation-friendly it is. Prefer a rough model that exposes tradeoffs, constraints, and next actions over a polished one that merely explains the business neatly.
Why it matters
Founders operate with limited time and incomplete information. Treating attractive frameworks as truth can create false confidence, while decision-tested models help teams focus scarce resources and update their strategy as evidence changes.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
Pick one framework you currently use for a major decision. Ask: What choice has this changed, which assumptions can we test, and what would we do differently if it were wrong? If the answers are unclear, simplify or replace it.