A Smart Bear · Jason Cohen
articleprincipleA butterfly flaps its wings and you make a sale
29 December 2024Profit
Source excerpt
About A Smart BearIt is true that small changes can have enormous effects? Or is this just what optimization consultants want us to believe?
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Apollo layer
What a founder can learn
Founder takeaway
Treat claims that tiny optimizations will produce outsized sales gains as hypotheses, not strategy. Test changes against a clear baseline and distinguish repeatable improvements from random variation.
Why it matters
Over-crediting small changes can send founders chasing noise, wasting time on marginal tweaks instead of improving the underlying demand engine.
Relevant guides
Put it to work
For your next optimization, write down the expected effect, measurement window, and evidence threshold in advance. What result would justify scaling the change—and what result would make you discard it?
Private notes